Yesterday was the day of developments. Mulayam Singh Yadav Chief of the One of the outside supporter of the ruling coalition Samajwadi Party revealed before his party workers that he has the confidential information that General Elections scheduled in My 2014 could pre pone and may take place in November this year and in other development Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told media persons on board during his return journey from South Africa that he is willing to head the UPA 3 if he can bring back it to power once again. In the western part of our country the chief Minister of Gujarat Narendra modi welcomed a delegation of US congress representatives along with US business group. Although all of three developments are not related with each other in any way but every one of them has some indication for the future of the politics of our country.
If statement of Mulayam Singh Yadav deserves to be taken seriously the confidence of prime Minster to return to power for third time also need some scrutiny and the meeting of the delegation from the USA with chief Minister of Gujarat is also pregnant with some political implications.
Let’s try to decipher the statement of the Mulayam Singh Yadav who told his party workers to prepare for early general elections along with the confidence of the Prime Minster to return back to power for third time.
I have been arguing for last one year that UPA government will not complete its term and midterm polls are most likely. Midterm polls will happen not because this government collapse but will occur because government itself pre pone the elections.
The present government is headed by Congress and its priority is very much different from the priorities of government. At this point of time the strategist in Congress would have three priorities.
First, Save and secure the integrity of the first family of Congress.
Second, Save and secure the political integrity of its prince Rahul Gandhi
Third, to make sure that anti incumbency and unpopularity of congress will not help BJP to come to power.
Since 2G scam has broke in public last year to pave the way for the strings of scams the question of culpability of higher decision makers have come in debate. The mysterious mention of “The family” as the beneficiary of the kickback paid in the chopper deal from Augusta wasteland has also made the congress high command the more uneasy as it has the potential to turn into another Bofors .At the same time the role of Robert vadra the son in law of chair person of UPA Smt Sonia Gandhi in few land deals has come in the public and on few occasions it has become reason for the adjournment of the parliament and assemblies.
Sonia Gandhi had always been a point of debate among some section of people with rumors and whispers and it had never die down. In 2004 Sonia Gandhi had buried this debate with his master stroke of denying the top post of the country but she knows it more than anyone else that even a nominal mention can put her integrity in jeopardy.
The second priority of the congress party is to save its prince from any political adventurism as his political acumen has been in greater scrutiny once he decided to put all his weight behind the campaign in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. He has not been able to do any wonders in both of the states and in next general elections congress can’t afford to put all its egg in one box.
As a shrewd strategist Congress strategists will prioritize to make sure that anti incumbency and unpopularity of the congress should not give direct benefit to its principle opposition BJP and if Congress could not be able to return to power any arrangement should happen in which it has more say rather than sitting in opposition for next five years.
If we keep all these priorities of congress in mind and analyze the current situation of the country it is very much likely that congress will prefer to go to early polls rather than waiting for completion of the term of the government.
Since 2009 the people within congress and bureaucracy have realized that Prime Minister is not in authority and he is somehow stop gap arrangement and Rahul Gandhi is our PM. Because of this perception most of the ministers and bureaucrats did not comply with PM and his vision and it not only created governance deficit but also given so much liberty to bureaucracy to take control in their hands. Now situation has come to such extent where ministers are afraid of bureaucrats and only few ministers are there who have hold on their departments and this freedom of bureaucracy can put government in any big trouble.
The whole media loves to come out with juicy story and gossips on the internal power tussle of the BJP but they have not been fair enough to expose the power struggle within Congress itself where most of the senior leaders of the party who have worked under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi are not willing to work under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and most of the senior leaders who have find themselves not to aspire for the top post in the party and Government which was somehow reserved for the first family don’t want the same fate for their next generations. Most of the leaders are waiting for a moment when first family losses its mass appeals among the people of the country and they will get the chance to challenge their authority. If this government will complete its term and the first family will be given the charge to bring back UPA into power they would have such a herculean task before them which can open the Pandora’s Box in congress. Congress leadership wants to avoid this situation at any cost.
Congress strategy seems to surprise the opposition particularly BJP which has not been able to present itself as united house or strong alternate before the people of the country. Congress have found BJP in the dilemma in their election strategy as well as the question of leadership as if they don’t come out with a face in the general elections they would not be more better than congress in the number of seats and if they project their most popular leader as their face it would also be not a smooth process.
Congress believes that if BJP projects Narendra Modi as their face in next general elections congress will bank on the support of Muslim vote and after the elections they can win back more allies in the name of secularism. That’s why prime Minister was optimistic that he can lead the UPA 3 as well. At the same time Congress knows very well that with every passing day the popularity of Narendra Modi is surging ahead and if general elections will happen on their stipulated time the strategy of Congress can backfire.
To conclude with Politics is an art of uncertainty and possibilities. Congress is hoping to repeat the 1996 of Atal Bihari Vajpaee in Narendra Modi of 2013 but they are missing one point. It is India of 2013 , Narendra Modi has the experience of governance of more than one decade with him and the right wing forces at global horizon galvanizing around him. Sometime political adventurism and miscalculation results in disaster.